4.5: Parting Thoughts

I’ve said, ‘Well this is my last day in Iraq’ too many times in my career. I wasn’t right when I said it this time either. Author’s photo, 2020. Baghdad, Iraq.

So, what’s next?

CAP started a few weeks ago and I only have a few initial reports, but word is, nothing changed. We’re still don’t have a ‘Digital ACFT’. Instead, we’re still diligently assessing future commanders’ ability to power yeet a 10-pound ball and write an essay which ChatGPT3 could do both better and faster.¹ Demanding more of our commanders will have to wait.

One standout corner of data innovation can be found out in 4th Infantry Division in Colorado Springs. A series of commanders including Drew Steadman, Brett Reichert, and Jon Bate have all worked together to bring data advantage to their formations.² They’ve seen great impact, helping to identify at risk soldiers, maximize the success of their crews in gunnery, and even measure the effectiveness of their campaign to instill a culture of excellence. Brett even executed a warfighter, NTC train-up, and a Brigade level exercise without using a single PowerPoint slide.

Meanwhile, the army is making some changes. The article that spawned this substack is being discussed at the Command and General Staff College, the School of Advanced Military Studies, the Sergeants Major Academy, and the Army War College. At the army main pre-command course, they added a 30-minute block on data literacy… but it’s taught by a historian.

As part of my enrollment at the AWC this summer, we were given a data literacy diagnostic. Fellows were tested on our data literacy, and also asked to assessed our own ability. As the rising cohort of colonels and brigade level commanders, this gave us a snapshot of where we are as a force, and where we can improve. All of us, myself included, have room to grow when it comes to data literacy.

The good news is the median score is better than a coin flip. The bad news is it still wouldn’t be a passing grade.

We are among the first of our generation to reach colonel. We elder millennials are now replacing Gen-X as commanders of brigades. We can no longer blame the army’s lack of change on Boomers. It’s on us now. We must make the decision to take the army forward.

I’m excited to see what junior officers and NCOs are already doing. They are out there right now, finding ways to leverage data to buy back the time we need. Time to train and get the the reps and sets that data-centric warfare requires. Time to experiment and innovate, and to be wrong and adapt. Time for the bowl full of OODA loops to fill up and start compounding.

One last treppenwitz to send you off with. In a recent VTC with fellow students at the AWC, I was asked about where I felt we had wasted money on data literacy and data tools, and where I thought we should be spending it instead. My possibly controversial answer was, ‘Give us less money’.

Go back through all the posts in Downrange Data, and you won’t find one vignette that asked for a single dollar. We built a digital staffing tool for CONOPs, and a novel PERSTAT to track all the things. We made our own 2062 generator, and a homegrown Wikipedia of area studies and OPTs. We found insurgent rockets and ways to keep vital camps open. We discovered techniques to leverage the data we already had, and to pass that information on better. We found ways to move information flat and fast, and we even jerry-rigged our own goddamn dashboard. And we never asked for a single cent.

I don’t recall ever asking for permission either.

Debts

First and foremost, I owe a thank you to my wife and editor, Dr. Katy Davis. I have been relying on Katy to fix everything I’ve written since my application for the Downing Scholarship in 2011. I have only ever published one thing without her edits. Before I kicked off Downrange Data, while she was furiously working to finish her doctorate (and homeschool our kids, and sell our house, and prepare to move to a foreign country), I told her that I didn’t need her to edit this new data writing project I was inventing for myself.

I cannot thank her enough for telling me how dumb I was. Her patience with late night work to restructure entire posts (while also graduating, moving, and keeping two neurospicy kids thriving) helped make Downrange Data possible, never mind readable. I love you, babe.

CPT Davis spotting the future Dr. Davis, circa 2009.

I also owe the team at NSTR a debt of thanks. In particular, Nick Frazier, who’s been a co-author and a dear friend throughout most of my army career. Zach Griffiths, who got me started writing, even if it was under false pretenses. August Cole, who kept me writing (and gave me ‘Guns and Zeros’). Ryan Harth, Ben Hopper, Will Lamb, Matt Moellering (who also guest posted), Marshall McGurk, Gordon Richmond and Jim Torrence; all of whom provided additional editing and suggestions throughout the process. I wouldn’t have taken Downrange Data from idea to reality without your pushing.

I also owe a thanks to my other guest posters Kevin Horrigan and Natalie Stone (who gave me two great posts).

My career would not be what it has been without the mentors and peers who kept me serving for the last 21 years, putting up with my nerdish ways. Ryan Begley, Terry Butcher, Kevin Capozzoli, Timyian Cheung, Abby Daniels, Ryan Erhler, Dave Harmantas, Ron Hudak, Chad Johnson, Stephen Lee, Tony Labrec, Joe McGraw, Travis Norby, Bill O’Malley, Scott Olson, and Al Riley. The only way to pay mentoring debts is forward, and I try to live up to your examples.

I owe my loving parents, Al and Carol Davis. I wouldn’t be the data nerd I am without you two.

And to all the readers and subscribers to Downrange Data, I hope this helped spark new ideas on how to leverage data within your organization. If reading Downrange Data let you see you’re not alone, remember you don’t need permission to start innovating. Your comments, likes, and shares helped more than I can express.

Colophon

I wrote and edited Downrange Data in Notion. This is not what Notion is designed for, but it worked for me. I tend to write in fits and starts, and I’ve found I work well by just skipping ahead anytime I get jammed up. Notion made it easy to drag and drop whole blocks of text back to where they belonged later. It allowed me to keep all my posts in a single place where I could bounce between drafts with ease in a way that Google Docs doesn’t. I was also able to build out a tracking table for posts that gave me an at-a-glance understanding on where I was with drafts, pictures, and timing. I would not have stayed on my projected timeline without it.

I designed the logo for Downrange data by first throwing a bunch of prompts about ‘military’, ‘data’, ‘logo’ and ‘special forces’ at Stable Diffusion. Stable Diffusion is an image generating LLM that you can download and run on your own hardware. After finding a couple different logos I liked, I brought them into Inkscape and reworked the designs, stealing components I liked best.

Substack has been a great tool for hosting, posting, and disseminating my work, and I owe Zach Griffiths for first introducing me to the platform.

Stickers!

Every Green Beret loves stickers. I teased making some in a note to subscribers when we hit 200. Here’s the design. Comment below if you’re interested.

1. ChatGPT3 is two years old and has since been outpaced by much more advanced models that can respond to voice, make photorealistic images with text, and even have a conversation about existential crisis with itself.

2. I was lucky enough to join these three on an upcoming episode of The Military Leader podcast where we share examples of how we used data to improve our commands.