6 Comments
User's avatar
cfrog's avatar

Good story; I like the characters. Speaking of autistic....why wouldn't the drones just be pre-fab'd already? The electronics, power supply, and explosive components would have to be prestaged anyway for pairing with the printable components? Did you have a concept in mind behind the narrative?

Expand full comment
Erik Davis's avatar

Thanks for the feedback.

RE: your question, I had a few reasons. First, I’ve been really inspired by just how much of their own work the Ukrainians have been doing:

[No More "Made in China": Ukraine Inches Closer to Self-Sufficient FPV Drone Manufacturing - Militarnyi](https://militarnyi.com/en/articles/no-more-made-in-china-ukraine-inches-closer-to-self-sufficient-fpv-drone-manufacturing/). UKR is doing their own ‘electronics, power supply, and explosive components’, and I think this is a future UW environment SOF needs to start grappling with instead of just plinking away 9mm at 6” dots.

Second, as I detail in the ‘Mass Effect’ series, I don’t think the future of this tech looks anything like our current acquisition process. Prestaged parts is based on the idea that 1) We (not TWN) know best what's needed and 2) the best way to get it is to build it and ship it to TWN. I think logistics onto TWN is always hard, and even harder when the shooting starts. Instead, I see real value in transforming existing on-island capability into churning out a myriad of different drones. Ones that can be updated, tweaked, and expended rapidly.

Third, I also wanted to explore what the whole-of-society concept looks like with AI and drones. When UW stops just being GBs in the woods doing ambushes and instead works on enlisting a whole population to design, build, employ, tweak, and partner with high-end intelligence. It seems like the idea that only the military would be interacting with AI as missing a key opportunity. That’s where ideas like TacTurk come in. What happens when whole-of-society gets into human-machine teaming? We’re seeing glimpses already in UKR, so I projected a couple years ahead and asked could what the 21st largest economy in the world (UKR is 57th) do? In particular one built around bleeding edge technology; I think the opportunities are incredible.

Expand full comment
cfrog's avatar

Alright. I'm asking because I get the 'lean into the future' thing, and I think you are doing a good job pushing it from a more practical perspective. But....3d printing is a weird animal that lives a split life in both practical applications and crazy future fiction renderings. I know the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) have leaned into it for parts, but that's for very specific parts. Hence, my question about the electronics, power supply, and payload. None of that is getting 3d printed and will not any time soon. I'm a Gen X and I remember cartooon shows where the 'astrocycle' got 3d printed as a demo of a spaceship's industrial plant. That's still 30 years in the future, and probably will continue to be. Even advanced additive manufacturing, while a blessing, requires some serious equipment. The equipment for jet engine fan blades is very intense and requires some serious facilities. I just don't think Zander is going to be printing complete Astrocycles anytime soon (old TV show reference). Why does it matter? Because, as you say, part of our acquisitions will change...but we need to be realistic about what that change will be and shape expectations accordingly. All that said... "When UW stops just being GBs in the woods doing ambushes and instead works on enlisting a whole population to design, build, employ, tweak, and partner with high-end intelligence."!!

Expand full comment
Erik Davis's avatar

I probably need to be more clear in the peice but it's more than 3d printing. It's whole production that can be done ever closer to the front. Check out the link above:

'A key milestone that set the company apart from dozens of other FPV drone suppliers was the launch of its own electronics production at Ukrainian facilities. Vyriy Drone began by developing flight controllers and speed regulators, whose designs remain relevant despite technological advancements, unlike communication receivers (ERLS). The company created technical documentation for producing controllers and regulators tailored to military needs, integrating them into a unified two-board design known as the “flight stack.”'

Expand full comment
cfrog's avatar

Okay, roger that; I see where you are coming from.. I've seen that Ukr effort already dug into what they are actually doing. In addition, I've had to clarify to some smart people that the Ukrainians are not in fact printing drones in their entirety and flying them right off the printer (which is what most adcopy and market speak seems to say). Just as your link mentions, the Ukrainians are having to manufacture the rest of the components in some other method and manage that supply chain. My old, favored service loves to talk about 3d Printing F35 engine parts like it's just done by a couple of LCpl's in a converted shipping container with the Lejeune library 3d printer while hiding in a jungle. It's funny - the tendency seems to be either 'stuck in old concepts and schemes' or full on 'future Tony Stark Nano Suits are real'. Hitting the reality in between those seems to be the trick. From a policy and strategy perspective, I think it's important. Understanding how the capability actually works and what is involved to make it work, means more clarity and consistency in mission, tasking, support, and expectations.

Again, I really like your approach with this series and this specifically is an interesting connection(that of the digital entity running highly automated adaptive logistics on the integrated command network). Because of your strong voice on this, I would recommend fleshing out the logistics just a touch more, so it doesn't fall into propagating the fantasy that this stuff happens without power, feed stock, and supplemental parts(I'm always good for suggesting more work on someone else's plate). In fact, I think that would be a sensible part of the AI...managing those requirements in support of it's production goals.

Expand full comment
Erik Davis's avatar

Thanks again for the feedback. It prompted me to take another run at it (just updated). Still trying to keep this as a short story, but I like pulling on this thread and think there's plenty more to explore.

Expand full comment